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ments from the passive condition in To this number we must add the which they now are.

American contingents. It is evident, in

view of the tonnage problem, that they 3. The present status of the opposing will never be able to arrive in Europe forces may be summarized thus:- in numbers proportioned to the popuForces of Pan-Germany. - The mo

lation of the United States. It will be bilizable forces directed from Berlin, a very great achievement if 1,500,000 reckoned on the maximum basis of American combatants can be sent to twenty per cent of the population, are Europe, with all the essential materials to-day about 28,000,000 men, made and supplies. Let us assume that that

. up of two elements:

number is both possible and probable. (a) About 19,000,000 troops whom In that case the mobilizable Allied

) the German Staff can regard as relia- forces which can be expected to play ble: Germans, Magyars (with the re- an active part in Europe will amount servation indicated above), Bulgars, to 18,300,000 European Allies and and Turks.

1,500,000 Americans — say, 20,000,000 (6) Some 9,000,000 Slav and Latin in round numbers. troops incorporated in the armies of Pan-Germany in opposition to their

IV real sentiments; of whom 8,000,000

Conclusion may be led to withdraw if a certain propaganda and a certain condi- The figures given above make possition of affairs shall be created by the ble the following conclusions: Entente.

(a) The mobilizable forces in Europe In reality, therefore, 19,000,000 Ger- at the disposal of the Allies (20,000,000) mans and pro-Germans must be ready are numerically greatly inferior to the to respond to all military necessities; comprehensive forces of Pan-Germany to keep in their ranks, by sheer terror- (28,000,000), and practically equal to ism, 9,000,000 soldiers who are there the forces of which the German Staff solely by dint of force and compulsion; can be reasonably sure (19,000,000).

) and to stand guard over a vast ex- It is difficult to see how the Allies panse of territory, the population of can add to their mobilizable effectives which, in at least half of the super- in Europe to any considerable extent. ficial area of Pan-Germany, is hostile On the other hand, in a few months the to them.

Germans will be, perhaps, in a position Forces of the Entente. — To avoid an to make use of fresh troops supplied by exaggerated estimate, these forces are Mussulman communities in Russia and estimated without regard to the smaller Central Asia. Therefore, by carrying Allies, or to Japan, — whose interven

on the conflict by means of a purely tion is at least probable, — or to the military strategy, it is probable that colonial contingents. Furthermore, the the Allies will find themselves numeribasis of calculation will be fifteen per cally inferior to the Germans and their cent of the population of the European Allies, as is already the case on the Allies. We have then,

Western Front.

(6) But the situation of the Allies France (15 per cent of 40,000,000) 6,000,000 Great Britain (15 per cent of

would be completely transformed if 46,000,000)

6,900,000 they should, in their turn, like the GerItaly (15 per cent of 36,000,000) 5,400,000 mans, resort to the strategy of the poTotal

18,300,000 litical sciences; for it would enable them

to exploit to their advantage the tre- pro-Germans would have to face wider; mendous sources of weakness that exist varying but combined hostile forces in the very heart of Pan-Germany." 65,000,000 human beings (42,000,0

Indeed, in that case, the Allies could men and 23,000,000 women). systematically arm, by the aerial route, a part of the 14,000,000 anti-Panger- To sum up: the purely militar mans, non-mobilized, in Central Pan- strategy leaves 20,000,000 Allies fast Germany, and thus bring about an in- to face with 28,000,000 Germans, prs surrection in the regions traversed by Germans, and troops enslaved by them the vital strategic communications of The strategy of the political science Pan-Germany. Secondly, they could, would transform the situation, for it by means of such insurrections, bring would subject 19,000,000 Germans and about a state of affairs, both moral pro-Germans to the submergent action and material, which would enable the of the endlessly diverse enveloping 8,000,000 troops embodied against powers of 65,000,000 persons, of whom their will in the German armies, to re- 47,000,000 are already in Pan-Gervolt in their turn.

many. Assuming this form of strategy to be If the Germans had been in our adopted, the 19,000,000 Germans and place, would they not long ago have pro-Germans would have to face the made use of the anti-German elements hostile action, active or passive, of in Pan-Germany, considering that in 20,000,000 Allied troops, 8,000,000 of Russia they have derived the enormous their own troops, in revolt or on strike, profit that we all know from elements and 14,000,000 possible insurgent civil- favorable to their cause, although they ians, or 42,000,000 in all.

were much less numerous than those (c) The 23,000,000 anti-Pangerman- utilizable by the Allies? Under these ist women in Pan-Germany are for the conditions can the latter refuse to most part compelled to work on the adopt, at last, the strategy of the poland or in the munition factories. As litical sciences ? they represent a by-no-means negligi- Far from working to the prejudice of ble force, if the propaganda were ef- the Western Front, it would work altofective, they could be induced to strike. gether to its advantage; for nothing In fact, in certain districts which I could afford greater relief to the Allied know well, the women are capable of troops from the terrible pressure that playing a very useful part in a revolt. they are having to withstand on that

Thus, the 19,000,000 Germans and front, than an uprising, scientifically 1 See M. Chéradame's article in the Atlantic organized, for the liberation of Central for March, 1918.

Europe.

THE CONTRIBUTORS' CLUB

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which we were so deeply and so unwitA FATHER TO HIS ENLISTED SON

tingly enshrouded. Perhaps these presI was not surprised to learn from ent war-shadows through which we your letter that you had finally decided are now threading our unknown way to enlist in your country's service; and are in reality no deeper and no less I found myself at once in a turmoil of perplexing and menacing than those conflicting emotions. I wonder if I can through which we had previously walktell you just how I felt. I was proud of ed in the bold assurance of ignorance you, my son. I realized that you had and error. The facts were before us, for months and months been revolving but we refused to face them. Prussia and re-revolving this question in your had for years been preaching its soulmind, and that this decisive step had less doctrine of Pangermanism. Treitnot been precipitously taken. You had schke and Nietzsche and Bernhardi talked it over repeatedly with me, and had boldly proclaimed a philosophy even more frequently with your moth- which was in harmony with the nefaer. You had listened with eager atten- rious plans of the Junkers and the tion to the advice of those of your war-lords. Men with the boldness and friends who were older, as well as of the intelligence of M. Chéradame saw those who are of your own age. We these dangers and proclaimed a general were all pretty unanimous, you know, warning. But what did such an abin opposing your plan. We honestly stract view as Pangermanism mean in thought that, as you are only eighteen face of the concrete interests in which years old, and as your education is in- our trivial lives were centred the complete, further training in school and fatuous game of piling up dollars, the college would make you more efficient relative merits of the popular ‘movie' in the aid that you could later render actors, the batting averages of the your country. We thought that in lat. prominent baseball players, the securer years - when we have emerged from ing of a high place in society's column? the welter of this relentless war, and Then I realized, too, how inaccurate when the world has once more swung and false had been my own analysis of back into sanity and repose — you international questions. I had for years would keenly regret the loss of your felt that civilization had brought us to diploma and this grim interruption of a plane where war was no longer posall your school associations.

sible. I think I must have told you of a Perhaps we were wrong. We older conversation I had with the president folk, we are discovering, have been of our company in June, 1914. He had wrong in many, many things. The just returned from Europe, where he shadows of war that have hung over had, as he thought, been able to gauge this darkened earth ever since August, accurately the temper of the European 1914, have shown us that we had for peoples. He knew that there were bityears and years been groping through ter national hatreds, and that the war ignorance and gloom, all unconscious in the Balkans had produced a maze of of the errors and the misconceptions in perplexities which might, in an ancient

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and less humane order of affairs, have will expand your soul and reveal web led to a clash of swords among

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of unsuspected emotional depth. Co jor powers. But through the years he incident with this will come a grex . had been soothed with the lotus and surging ambition. What sacrifices w] the poppies of the Hague Conferences, you not be willing to make, provides and he, like the rest of us, had felt that only your vicarious hardships ease the all such difficulties would be smoothed path for your offspring and lead him ti out by diplomatic assurances or friend- places of distinction and honor! No ly arbitration. Moreover, he had been school or college will be too good for thoroughly convinced that the great him, and already, while he lies breathbankers of the nations, realizing the ing out those earliest dormant day vast network of credits and loans, you will be busy planning his life and would never again consent to a declara- removing in fancy the obstacles that tion of war. All this he came back to tragically blocked your own early anrepeat to our confiding and credulous bitions and desires. ears. He had no trouble in convincing Then gradually, as he grows up and us that he was right. We, ourselves, had develops tastes alien to your own, you long been lulled by the same false siren will begin to question the source of tunes that had beguiled him from the these strange perversities, and wonder bare and palpable truth.

where in the wide, uncharted universe For my own part, I had gone even he ever picked up the strange whims further. I felt that we had reached a that so capriciously beguile him from plane of humanity that would in a few the path which you in your wisdom had years make disarmament quite practi- laid out with such meticulous care and cal. I had actually believed the opti- foresight. Suddenly, too, you will learn mistic utterances of the Massachusetts that he has outstripped you in certain Peace Society and the International branches of useful knowledge, and will Conciliation pamphlets.

find yourself turning in his direction I mention these errors, my son, to let for help and guidance in matters where you see that, while I opposed your en- your own experience was too meagre to listment at this time, I opposed it less meet the exacting demands of such trisvigorously than I should have done if ial matters as — gasoline or electricity. . confidence in my previous judgments You will perhaps discover, too, that had not been so rudely shattered by all the major plans which you had laid the crashing thunders of 1914. If I for him conflict most horribly with had been wrong in this analysis of traits and temperaments which he is international conditions, might I not developing. You think, of course, that also be wrong in this question, which he will want to enter your office and was more difficult because it could not carry on your business. Instead, he now be impartially analyzed ?

will some day bluntly inform you that Some day, I hope, you will have a he has no such intention - he is going son of your own. As you watch him to Paris to study art. What does he the day of his birth, as his tiny form care for billets and pig iron and the lies by his mother's side, a gush of ten

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they can all go to derness such as you have never known limbo, and he will go to France to folwill come to your aching heart and fill low Whistler's ways. And thus he wil you with a sense of sobering responsi- leave you to readjust yourself to the bility and obligation. There will come new conditions which his independence with this a wave of parental love that has imposed.

on

Oh, of course, it won't turn out just to avert the shock that has set all our like this! If it did, it could now be no homes a-tremble. He came with a slow

a surprise. What actually happens will be and leisured stride, but he has pinioned nothing which you ever thought about, our hearts with the might of his pitiless but it will be something stupefying and pressure. Everywhere I go, fathers and absurd — something that will send you mothers are telling me about their sons. back to your private office, force your This one is with Pershing's army, this hand through your fast-thinning hair, other one is in the aviation corps in and make you wonder at the strange Pensacola, scores are in the cantonperversity of youth. And you will be ments, impatient and restless, longing overwhelmed with a sense of terrible for the active service into which our disappointment. Then you will, for the transports are so soon to take them. As first time, perhaps, begin to understand these parents tell me of these details, a

, your own father's feelings, even though glow of pride is in their eyes; but I know in so many respects the situations are oh, how much more personally I so different. For my plans for you know it now - that, behind the pride have, as you well know, woefully mis- and the calm, hearts are throbbing with carried. I have not, as many fathers anxiety, and the vacant chairs in the do, expected you to follow in my foot dining-room and around the fireplace steps. Chance has apparently guided mutely speak their grim story of loss my career, and somehow I felt that it and poignant yearning. Yes, they tell would largely guide yours; but I never me the last letters were full of hope felt that it would guide you into the and cheer and the boys were all well. work allotted to me. I wanted you to But that was three weeks ago, and go to college — preferably, to Har- what is happening right now?

vard. I wanted you to sit in the same How shall I speak of the temptations class-rooms and gaze at the same jack- that you are sure to meet, my son? knife carvings that used to beguile me Don't think that I am going to preach through some of the sleepy hours in Old to you. My little homilies have been Sever. I wanted college to give you spread pretty thickly over the brief a thousand such trivially important years of your past life, and if they have things as it gave me, and I should have not been woven into the fabric of your liked it to fail to give another thousand unphrased philosophy, they cannot now with which I could so profitably have be abruptly gathered into the patdispensed.

tern. But we who are older and a bit But now all this, and the fancy-laden scar-worn would so gladly enlist in a sequence of all this, is not to be! In- sort of moral signal-service that would stead, I pick up The Lampoon, and I warn you of the presence of lurking listen to R. E. Sherwood as he in- enemies. I need not specify them terprets the modern message of John you know we have talked them all over. Harvard:

You in your own way are the only one Go forward, my son, for the bugle-calls beckon; who can conquer them. I have faith The grim god of battles has called you away; in your strength. Are you not strong Go forward, my son, never halting to reckon enough to give your soul its orders and The price your Creator may bid you to pay. see to it that each separate command is

Yes, the god of battles has come to implicitly obeyed? It is only thus that interrupt the plans I had made for you. strong and enduring character is develHe came somewhat hesitatingly into oped. It is only through this experiAmerica, but not hesitatingly enough ence and triumph that you can return

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