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However, we may retain this figure, that without the troops and diverse for the vanished million is balanced by contributions of the Balkans and Turthe 1,800,000 Russian subjects of the key, to which are now added those Caucasus, many of whom have already of Southern Russia, Austria-Germany fought with the Russian troops against would long since have been powerless the German-Turk combination. The to continue the struggle. In reality, treachery of the Bolsheviks having therefore, any serious interference with placed these Armenians in peril of be- the Austro-German communications ing massacred in their turn, - espe- with the East (Russia and the Balcially at this time, when the Turks are kans) will be enough to make the situaiming at taking possession of the ation very difficult, both morally and Caucasus with the aid of the Mus- materially, for the armies concentratsulman element there, - we might well ed on the Western front by the Berfind a quite appreciable numerical lin General Staff and this with resupport among the Armenians of the markable rapidity. We are justified, Caucasus.

then, in saying that the vital interior (6) In Central Europe:

districts of Pan-Germany are practi

cally occupied by peoples favorably inPoles

20,000,000

clined to the Entente. This is a fact Lithuanians

2,000,000 Letts

2,000,000 susceptible of being turned to enormous Ruthenians

5,500,000 advantage. Czech-Slovaks

8,500,000 Jugo-Slavs

11,000,000

Let us now proceed to an analysis Roumanians

10,000,000

of the first category. The two divi. Total

59,000,000

sions —10,000,000 in Turkey and We must make an important reser- 59,000,000 in Central Europe — form vation with respect to the Ententophil a total of 69,000,000 of people who are sentiments of the Ruthenians, because anti-Pangermanist by conviction. Diof the anti-Polish Ukrainian policy of vided into its constituent elements, this the Central Powers. It is possible that total gives the following result:the Germans will eventually set the Ruthenians against the Poles; but the

(a) Male subjects of the Central PowRuthenians occupy only the eastern

ers, mobilized against their will
therefore armed

8,300,000 portion of Galicia, while all the rest of

(6) Male subjects of the Central Powthe 59,000,000 people of the group ers, not mobilized (including under consideration inhabit the vast

children)

12,450,000 regions extending from the Baltic to

(c) Male subjects of invaded districts

of the Entente in Central Euthe southern line of the Balkans (about

rope, not mobilized (including 1500 kilometres; see the map on page children)

13,750,000 848).

Total males

34,500,000 Now, these regions form the most indispensable and at the same time (a) Female subjects of the Entente 13,750,000 the most vulnerable strategic base of all (6) Female subjects of the Central military Pan-Germany. In fact all the Powers

20,750,000 rail and water lines of communication

Total females

34,500,000 which connect Austria and Germany with Russia, the Balkans, and Turkey, Alongside of this, let us place an antraverse these regions. Three and a alysis of the second category — slaves half years of war have demonstrated of the Germans, or of their vassals, who VOL. 121 - N0.6

are to-day incapable of action because from the ‘Political Science'analysis oi they are too near the military lines; Pan-Germany. but who might act most effectively if The foregoing analysis makes pos serious disturbances should arise in sible certain ethnographical, national Central Europe.

psychological, and geographical deducThis second category is made up of tions which, taken as a whole, enable two geographical elements.

(1) to estimate reasonably the mora (a) In Turkey,

make-up of the Pan-German armies:

(2) to draw up a table of the different Ottoman Greeks

2,000,000

elements constituting the insurrectionLevantines

2,000,000

ary forces now latent in Pan-Germany: (6) On the Western Front, - and (3) to compare the forces of the Belgians

7,500,000

Entente and Pan-Germany for 1918. French

3,000,000 Alsace-Lorrainers

1,500,000

1. The moral make-up of the armies Italians in Austria (about)

1,000,000

of Pan-Germany. - The foregoing ethTotal

17,000,000 nographical and psychological analysis

has enabled us to conclude that the In considering this table we must re

armies directed from Berlin, considered member that the number of the Ital

with respect to the sentiments that inians is really much larger, for it should

spire them, are composed of two sharpinclude the people of the recently over

ly opposed elements, namely: run territory; but at this time of writing the data for estimating their num- Germans and pro-Germans, mobiber are insufficient.

lized

18,800.000 Divided into their different elements, Anti-Pangermanists, mobilized these figures show the following re

against their will

9,200,000 sult:

Total

28,000,00 (a) Male subjects of the Central Pow

or, let us say, one in five of the entire ers, mobilized against their will,

population of the Central Powers. - therefore, armed

900,000 From these 28,000,000, it may be (6) Male subjects of the Central Pow

said that we should deduct the losses ers not mobilized (including children)

1,350,000

since the war began; but the yearly (c) Male subjects of invaded districts

losses of the Central Powers probably of the Eạtente in the West,

do not exceed their yearly military connot mobilized (including chil.

tingent, which is in the neighborhood dren)

6,250,000

of 1,350,000 men. We may, therefore, Total males

8,500,000

assume that this yearly contingent bal

ances the losses, and that the total (a) Female subjects of the Central

mobilized force of Pan-Germany rePowers,

2,250,000 (6) Female subjects of the Entente, 6,250,000

mains, in round numbers, at 28,000,000.

Hence we arrive at three deductions Total females,

8,500,000

of the highest importance.

(a) It is exceedingly important to re

member that this figure - 28,000,000 III

- represents the grand maximum that If the reader has been sufficiently the Central Powers can mobilize topatient to follow me thus far, we may day; that is to say, so long as they have pass on to certain practical deductions not succeeded in organizing for military

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purposes the men of certain portions considerable part of these involuntary of the Ukraine, and the Mussulmans of soldiers are armed; and on the other, Russia, Persia, Afghanistan, and Cen- their state of mind, induced by their

, tral Asia. The possibility of this addi- most manifest interest, inclines them tion to their strength constitutes a tre- to declare open rebellion against their mendous new peril for the future; but oppressors, as soon as they shall feel it seems reasonable to assume that, by that conditions will allow them to do so reason of the difficulty of communica- effectively. tion, these fresh military organizations It is therefore quite within bounds to cannot be effectuated for at least eight say that in thearmies of Pan-Germany, months.

of every three soldiers there is one who Having made these reservations, we certainly does not desire to make use may regard this figure of 28,000,000 as of his weapons against the Entente; representing the maximum, that is to and one who, on the contrary, will joysay, the grand total of the mobilizable fully make use of them, as soon as he forces of Pan-Germany during 1918. shall be clearly convinced of the neces

(6) This number includes two groups sity, to assist in the destruction of Panwhose sentiments are sharply opposed. Germany, whose continuance would The only group upon which, as a whole, perpetuate his own slavery and that of Berlin can depend — the Germans, his people. Magyars (and this element is not alto- This is a fact of tremendous impor

. gether reliable), Bulgars, and Turks tance to the Allies. numbers at most 18,800,000 men The Berlin Staff feels so far from sure say, 19,000,000 in round numbers. Be- of the Slav and Latin troops that it cause of the difficulty of communica- dares not use them in dense masses on tion, mentioned above, with respect to the Western Front. They are, for the the organization of troops among the most part, either sent into Turkey, or new Asiatic elements, this figure would utilized in the garrisons of the interior, seem to represent the unelastic maxi- or mobilized in the munition factories mum of the genuinely Pangermanist of Pan-Germany. Thus the majority forces for about eight months to come. of them are so situated as to make

This deduction is of essential impor- an insurrectionary movement on their tance; for by taking it as a starting- part particularly effective. It is for the point, we shall comprehend clearly Allies to have the intelligence to do how it is possible for the Entente, after whatever may be necessary to make the about six months of preparation, to most of it. subject this maximum to the overwhelming simultaneous action of an 2. Table of the possible insurrectionaggregation of forces so diverse and so ary forces in Pan-Germany. powerful that the result must inevitably be the destruction of Pan-Germany

Gross Estimate within a very few weeks after such ac

(a) Slaves in the first category (Cention shall have been started.

tral Europe)

69,000,000

(6) Slaves in the second category (c) In the armies of Pan-Germany

(Western and Ottoman fronts) 17,000,000 there are 9,200,000 troops who, albeit (c) Magyar proletariat

8,000,000 subjects of the Central Powers, are

Total

94,000,000 Slavs, Latins, or Semites, and whose real interests are undeniably anti-Pan- There are, then, in gross, in Pangermanist. Now, on the one hand, a Germany, anti-Pangermanist elements

up of

numbering 94,000,000 persons. These effective action. This number, stil possible insurrectionary forces are made quite considerable, is composed of two

elements: (1) the 4,000,000 subjects of (a) Anti-Pangermanist men, mobi

the Central Powers, whom we reckon lized against their will 10,800,000 as utilizable, are, to be sure, discharged (b) Anti-Pangermanist males, not

men; but after eliminating the weak mobilized (including children) 36,200,000 and sickly, a considerable proportion (c) Anti-Pangermanist females 47,000,000

of them, whom the Austro-Boche civi Total

94,000,000 service is certainly making some use Net Estimate

of — principally in munition factories

or in agriculture -- are capable of takThe gross estimate of each of these ing an effective part in an insurrection possible insurrectionary elements is sub- (2) As for the 10,000,000 subjects of ject to reductions for divers reasons. the Entente, there are unquestionably

(a) To allow for the anti-Entente in- many of them who have been deported. Auence which the Germans may exert to work in the munition factories of over the Ruthenians or Ukrainians in Pan-Germany, or in the fields. Eastern Galicia and over certain Polish Thus these 14,000,000 men may be elements, and to guard against a too op- regarded as a reservoir upon which the timistic estimate, the figure 10,800,000 Entente should be able to draw. should be reduced to 8,000,000.

(c) Females. - Reducing by one

( (6) and (c) These gross figures in- half the 47,000,000 females, we have, in clude the children and old men ele- round numbers, 23,000,000 women bements that are clearly incapable of ef- tween twenty and sixty years of age. fective action. We must therefore de- Thus we arrive at the following duct from these two groups the infants table of the minimum insurrectionary and youths below twenty and the old forces now existing in Pan-Germany. men over sixty. Our ethnical data en

Mobilized men

8,000,000 able us to do this scientifically.

Non-mobilized men 14,000,000 The French census of 1911 discloses

Women

23,000,000 that the persons of both sexes under

Total

45,000,000 twenty and those above sixty make up a little less than half of the whole

popu- These 45,000,000 men and women in lation. Thus, if we reduce the gross Pan-Germany, whether they represent number of non-mobilized men and wo- possible insurgents or centres of pasmen by one half, we shall obtain the sive resistance, do in very truth conresult sought. But the gross number of stitute important sources of both moral non-mobilized men (6) includes many and material strength. They are out between twenty and sixty who have of sight, and unknown in the Allied been discharged, a large proportion countries. Yet they exist, as the image being infirm, or sick, or sickly, and exists, although invisible, on the undehence unfit for service. The gross fig- veloped photographic plate. ures, 13,800,000, already reduced by The problem, then, for the Allies is half, must be again reduced by a fourth first, to grasp the actuality of these to allow for this situation.

latent insurrectionary forces; then to The net result of these deductions is make them known, to impress upon to reduce to 14,000,000 the number of the forces themselves the idea of their non-mobilized anti-Pangermanist men power; and, lastly, so to organize them in Pan-Germany, who are capable of as to transform them into active ele

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