Mr. MCCLINTIC. Mr. Chairman, would it be advisable to name some of the countries that show an increase in trade, so that the committee might have some idea as to what the trend is that has taken place? Mr. SAYRE. The United Kingdom-Great Britain and Northern Ireland-for instance, increased in respect of imports from 15.19 in 1929 to 17.18 in 1931. Then in 1932 it experienced a slight decrease, to 16.43. But that is an increase over the 4 years in imports. For trade as a whole the increase was from 13.04 to 13.38, while the trade of the United States was falling from 13.83 to 10.92. The import proportion of France increased, 1929-32, from 6.41 to 8.44; the export proportion from 5.95 to 6.08. Russia went up from 1.27 in imports, in 1929, to 2.59 in 1932; and in exports from 1.46 in 1929 to 2.28 in 1932. The table also averages these figures together in another column, which I will not stop to read. Mr. COOPER. Is it a fair statement, Doctor, to state that the other principal countries of the world are showing an increase in world trade while we are showing a decrease? Mr. SAYRE. I think the fair statement would be that we are showing a decrease, and naturally so far as we have a diminished proportion of world trade, some other country or countries must show increased proportions of world trade. The table shows the 11 leading countries. The United States and three others show decreased proportions; the other 7 show increased proportions. Mr. REED. Can you give us the figure showing the exports during the month of January this year as compared with the month of January last year, 1933? Mr. SAYRE. I do not have the figures, sir. Mr. REED. Of course, I cannot vouch for the accuracy of these figures that appear in Foreign Trade Merchant Marine News, published March 1934-this year. It just came to the desk. Throughout January exports from the United States total $169,539,000 against $118,559,000 in January of 1933. So there is a very large increase according to the figures of the Department of Commerce. In connection with general imports as between 1934 and 1933, respectively, the figures are $128,536,000 and $92,718,000. They say that this should be conclusive evidence, even to the most cautious observer, that foreign trade everywhere has turned the corner. Mr. SAYRE. I hope with all my heart that it has. Mr. REED. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of these figures, but they are evidently quoting the Department of Commerce. Mr. SAYRE. I hope with all my heart that it does reflect the truth, sir. But the point that I am trying to make is that the United States for the last several years has had a diminishing share of world trade, which is a serious condition we have got to face, and we have to take measures, insofar as practicable, to overcome that situation. Mr. REED. I hold in my hand now, which I did not have a moment ago, a report of the Department of Commerce, dated February 1934 in which apparently the figures which I just submitted to you are verified. Evidently the figures have been compiled and have been sent out. I do not say that in any way to criticize the source of your information that they had not yet been filed, but merely to point out the fact. Mr. VINSON. As I recall it, there were figures put into the record by a former witness-I cannot recall his name at this moment; I do not know whether it was Mr. Roper-but they were comparable figures as between January of this year and January of last year. Mr. REED. And there is a marked increase this year. Mr. VINSON. Yes. It was explained that the matter of going off the gold standard, depreciated currency, or devaluation of the dollar had brought that about. The CHAIRMAN. And not increased business. Mr. VINSON. It put our export trade in a more favorable position. Mr. SAYRE. AS reflecting this same general tendency of which I speak, I have before me some of the figures concerning the proportion of United States trade to South America during recent years. In Argentina, for instance, United States imports into that country were 24.7 percent of total Argentine imports in 1926. In 1932 they had dropped to 13.6 percent. In 1933 they had dropped to 12.6 percent. In other words, other countries were forging ahead and taking the United States' share of that import trade into Argentina. With regard to Argentina it is noticeable that British trade went forward and other countries went forward as we were going backward. The same thing is true of Chile. Whereas in 1926 the United States had 32,7 percent of Chile's imports, in 1932 that figure of 32.7 was replaced by 22.8 and in 1933 by 22.5. Mr. REED. I am very sorry to interrupt again, but the matter of going off the gold standard was mentioned here a moment ago. That ought to affect our imports rather than our exports. Mr. VINSON. I coupled that with the devaluation of the dollar. Mr. REED. But the figures here show that our imports have increased to a marked degree, even after we went off the gold standard, month after month. Mr. VINSON. Of course, when we sell goods over there, naturally our imports would increase. Mr. REED. All of the imports have increased in spite of the fact that we went off the gold standard. The CHAIRMAN. You have no figures to show the increase or a decrease of other countries for this same period, the month of January? Mr. REED. No. The CHAIRMAN. You see Dr. Sayre is making a comparative statement for the year. Mr. KNUTSON. Mr. Sayre, what proportion of our total production is consumed at home, in normal times? Mr. SAYRE. All but about 10 percent; that, is 10 percent by value. But in individual industries the proportion exported runs as high as 50 percent, or even more. Mr. KNUTSON. Even though we were to enter into reciprocal agreements with foreign countries, and as a result of such arrangements we were given favored rates on anything that we might export, what assurance would we have that they would buy from us, in spite of those arrangements? For instance, let us say that France enters into such an arrangement with us. At the present time she is allowing us to ship in a million dollars worth of apples a year, and according to press reports many of those apples are rotting on the wharves. Now, the French Government may allow a million dollars worth of apples to come in under very favorable conditions, but is the French Government in a position to force the French people to eat those apples? I think they could do it in Germany and Italy, but could they do it in France? Mr. SAYRE. All I can say is, sir, that many countries have been making overtures to the State Department for the purpose of entering into these bargaining agreements. That indicates that they believe that trades can be made which will be mutually profitable. Mr. KNUTSON. Let us say that we make an agreement with a certain country to give them an advantage of 25 percent in the existing rates. Of course, I do not know how these treaties are negotiated, but I am just using that as an illustration. Mr. SAYRE. You mean that the foreign tariff will come down 25 percent? Mr. KNUTSON. Our tariff. Mr. SAYRE. That our tariff will come down by virtue of a bargaining agreement? Mr. KNUTSON. That both the foreign and our tariff will come down. The mere fact that foreign governments have indicated to the State Department that they would like to enter into reciprocal agreements with this country does not necessarily imply that they are going to buy from us. What they want to do is to sell to us. Mr. SAYRE. Yes, and what we want to do is to sell to them, and the agreement is not going to be made until both sides are convinced that there is a sound basis for a trade. Mr. KNUTSON. Let us say that you enter into an agreement. Let us use France as an example. Let us say that she agrees to lower her rates in our favor by 25 or even 50 percent. Mr. SAYRE. Let us suppose that France lowers the rate on American automobiles by 25 or 50 percent, if you like. Mr. KNUTSON. Yes, we can use automobiles as an illustration, although I do not think that the automobile industry is one-let me put it this way, that the automobile industry is better able to go into the foreign market and look after itself than almost any other industry, is not that so? It has been testified to that it is so highly developed. Mr. SAYRE. It is an efficient industry. Whether it is the most efficient industry is a question.I do not feel prepared to answer. Mr. KNUTSON. Well, it is one of the most efficient industries in the country. The thing I would like to be assured on or to get some information about is this. Are foreign governments in a position to go through with any agreement that they may make? For instance, can they agree to take a fixed amount from this country of a certain product, and are they in a position to force their people to take it? Mr. SAYRE. Most of them are not, sir. Most foreign governments cannot compel sales. But agreements will not be made unless both sides are convinced that there is a sound basis of trade. Mr. KNUTSON. Of course. I assume that you would not make a one-sided agreement. But even though they gave us the preferential tariff, would we be able to go into that market and compete? For instance, would we be able to go into the market and compete with Japan? Mr. SAYRE. We will make our trade agreements with an eye to those commodities in which we can compete. Mr. KNUTSON. Suppose we made an agreement with Japan and gave Japan the same rates. Could we still go into that territory? Mr. SAYRE. We could, so far as certain commodities are concerned, most assuredly. Mr. TREADWAY. May I ask the gentleman one question in that connection? I do not intend to take the gentleman's time, but you made one remark just now that interested me, although every one you have made has interested me. You used the language, if I heard you correctly, that countries abroad have applied to the State Department to establish bargaining treaties. Mr. SAYRE. I said, I think, that a number of them have approached the State Department with that end in view. Mr. TREADWAY. For bargaining treaties? Mr. TREADWAY. You have heard me try to get some information as to the details of these bargains and I have not been successful. You are the first witness I have heard admit that we have been approached by foreign countries to have this kind of treaty established. Mr. SAYRE. We have, sir. Mr. TREADWAY. Could you give us a little more detail? You have been a little more frank than some of the others that I have interviewed on this subject. Mr. SAYRE. I do not know that I have, and I do not feel that it is quite possible to reveal the approaches of foreign governments made in confidence to the State Department. I think really, sir, it would not be politic or wise or fair to reveal such approaches as have been made. Mr. TREADWAY. And still you ask us to take these bargaining treaties or bargaining deliberations, whatever you call themswapping, I call it, a Yankee expression-you ask us to take these approaches of foreign governments to a branch of our Government on faith. Mr. SAYRE. No; not on faith. Mr. TREADWAY. What else? Mr. SAYRE. On reason. Mr. TREADWAY. I just want you to tell us what they are. Mr. SAYRE. On reason because, as I hope to suggest in just a moment, other countries are doing this and they are winning away trade that formerly had come to the United States. I am going to suggest that in just a moment, sir. The CHAIRMAN. As I understand it, that is a matter of record, not of opinion? Mr. SAYRE. Yes, sir. Mr. TREADWAY. What is? Mr. SAYRE. That foreign countries are winning away trade which had previously been enjoyed by the United States. I am going to suggest in a moment one factor which I believe is operating to enable them to do it I will not stop to read statistics, but again I have before me a list showing how American trade in certain Latin American countries has been declining in recent years Mr. VINSON. Will that data be inserted in the record? Mr. SAYRE. It can be, if you like. The CHAIRMAN. Without objection, it will be inserted in the record. (The data referred to is as follows:) |