Despite the visibility given to alternatives to the nuclear family, most forecasters believe the nuclear family will survive and flourish. However, there will be increasing numbers of individuals never marrying, marrying later, or seeking alternative life styles. As noted earlier, the number of individuals who never marry is expected to double. The percentage of single men and women, under 35, has risen steadily since 1960. If and when they do marry, there are not only fewer births but there is less time between the first and the last birth. As a result, the total number of years devoted to child bearing and rearing is shortened. Over The family structure has, and probably will continue, to suffer disruption. one million children per year are forced into single parent homes as a result of divorce. There has been an increase in the ratio of currently divorced persons to those who are partners in intact marriages. Women who are now 30 years old face a one out of three chance that their marriage will eventually end in divorce. In 1960 for every 1,000 married men, there were 28 men divorced and not remarried. By 1972, this rate had increased to 38 per 1,000. For women the numbers have risen from 42 per 1,000 in 1960 to 66 per 1,000 in 1972. The higher statistics for women reflect the higher propensity for divorced men to remarry. These statistics also reflect the fact that three-fourths of the net increase in female family heads between 1970 and 1975 was accounted for by women who were divorced or separated. There was an increase of 1.6 million female-headed families during this period. The impact of this change has been and should continue to be felt in the labor force, welfare roles, and birth rates. 12/ A family group which consists only of father, mother, and children. 25-081 - 78 - 40 CRS 14 It is probable that families will to be smaller in the future. We can assume that for some individuals this may mean greater personal fulfillment; for others it may mean greater instability resulting in divorce rates even higher than current levels. Some believe that in general, women will marry later, and when they do, they will emerge as full partners and equal breadwinners. A rising number of women are even expected to earn more money than their husbands. (In 1972, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over 25 percent of all working wives earned as much or more than their husbands.) The number of women who work outside of the home has risen steadily since 1947, but the increase has been especially great during the last two years. In 1976, women comprised 40.7 percent of the national labor force, a percentage that was not expected to be reached until 1985. 13/ It is estimated that this proportion will rise to 46.6 percent by 1990. While women will make up a larger share of the labor force by 1985, the Conference Board forecasts that two-thirds of this increase in female employment will be in clerical or service jobs. According to one Smaller families, temporary living arrangements, and single person families, combined with inflation and energy shortages, will, in part, lead to smaller homes, fewer homes, and a decline in the single-family detached home. estimate, single family detached homes will decline from 50-60 percent of all housing begun in recent years, to 20-30 percent. Many of the new homes will be erected in a cluster arrangement with common walls and will compete with mobile homes for the attention of many young families. These trends may necessitate a complete review of Federal housing and land use policies. 13/ Lindsey, Robert. Women Entering Job Market at an Extraordinary Pace. New York Times, Sept. 12, 1976: 49. Also notable is the fact that for the first time in our Nation's history, more than one-half of our school age children now have mothers who are in the labor force; one-third of the mothers with pre-school children work outside of the home. The rise in the number of working mothers or female-headed households, coupled with an inflation rate of 5 percent or higher, will increase the pressure for enlarging existing day care services particularly the publicly financed portion of the - and for broadening the eligibility standards. While all of the above changes are important, the change that probably has had the most impact on our life styles, our economic priorities, and our political power bases in the large-scale migration of our population out of various regions and cities around the country. The migration from the farms, to the cities, to the suburbs, back to the rural areas and in some cases, back to the cities, is just one example of a population shift which appears to be causing changing needs, technologies, and values. Between 1970-1975, on the average, for every 100 persons that moved into the city, 130 moved out. Many of our major cities are continuing to lose large numbers of their better educated, higher income residents, leaving behind deep-seated economic and administrative problems, such as diminished tax bases and declining employment opportunities. On the other hand, several regions around the country are experiencing growth at an unexpected rate. Some are making efforts to encourage this growth and others are discouraging it. The trend towards smallness and away from metropolitan areas may be endangering the kind of life many of these migrants seem to be seeking. In some rural areas, local residents are rebelling against newcomers' demands for the very urban amenities they left behind. 14/ If present residential trends continue, in the 1990s America will become a Nation with a suburban majority. Categorizing residence as suburban, central city and nonmetropolitan, in 1950 the suburbs had the fewest residents. By 1960, the 1960 the U.S. population was balanced among the three categories, and by 1970 the 14/ Lyons, Richard D. Scientists Told of Population Shift to Rural Areas. New York Times, Feb. 25, 1977: CRS - 17 suburbs had become the most favored locale. This is illustrated by the following Although in This suburban majority is not exclusively a white phenomena. general, economically successful whites tend to flee to the suburbs and economically successful blacks have tended to flee from the slums but stay within city limits, the rate of blacks living in suburbs has actually gone up more sharply, admittedly starting from a much smaller base. Blacks made up about 5 percent of the suburban population in 1970 (versus about 11 percent of the total population). However, the black 1960-70 rate of increase in suburbia was 29 percent versus 27.5 percent for whites. Along with the out flow from the cities to the suburbs, a regional migration has occurred. 15/16/17/ Since the first half of the 1970s there has been a considerable net loss of households from the large urban areas of the Northeast, North Central States, and the Middle Atlantic States to the South Atlantic, South Central, West, and Mountain States. States and metropolitan areas offering recreational opportunities and climatic advantages are projected to show substantial rapid population growth from now to 1990. By 1990, a 50 percent increase in population growth is expected for Florida, Arizona, and Neveda; a 37 percent increase for Hawaii; and a 33 percent 15/ American Council of Life Insurance. Changing Residential Patterns and Housing. 16/ NPA Projection Show 16 Electoral Vote Gains in the Sunbelt. Looking Ahead and Projection Highlights, v. 11, no. 3, August 1976. 17/ Wooten, James T. Aging Process Catches Up With Cities of the North. New York Times, Feb. 13, 1976: 1, 14. |