t An Autumn Which Begins with ASPECTS OF THE FIRST DECLINE FROM A YEAR AGO SINCE 1923- SOMET Contrasts of 1927 with 1926 BY ALEXANDER DANA NOYES OMETIMES, in the full sweep of prosperity or of reaction from pros perity, scattered events of a single season cause thoughtful reconsideration of the position. It will often be only a momentary shift of wind; the ship may presently be moving ahead again under full sail. But for the moment, the financial navigator will take his bearing carefully. The autumn season, which always tests the question of trade activities as compared with a preceding year, has this year shown perceptible slowing down. Quickening of the pace from that of the summer months has occurred in most departments of distribution and consumption, as it always does at this season, in "good years" or in "bad years." But it has been less rapid than in 1926 or 1925, and it has left volume of production and trade very considerably under that of twelve months ago. The weekly reports of the American Railway Association on tonnage of freight loaded for transportation, which have for half a dozen years been the most accurate weather-sign of the trend of trade, and which in every autumn since 1921 have increased over those of the year before, averaged in July 53 per cent less than a year ago, and in August 34 per cent, and fell 4 per cent below 1926 in the first half of September. Railway net earnings have been running some 10 per cent under 1926; employment in industry as a whole has been considerably reduced. Steel production, the other familiar index to activity of general industry, was estimated at the end of September to be running 20 per cent below the same month last year. It had hardly changed from its midsummer dulness. It compared less unfavorably with 1925; indeed, the autumn's general picture of industry has suggested rather reaction from a recent abnormally high pitch of trade activity than relapse to the subnormal. Nevertheless, the view of some observers close to various industries was expressed in the remark regarding transportation made by President Storey of the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe, that earnings in 1926 had probably "reached the peak for several years." SLACKENING in the pace of trade and Flow and industry is synonymous, so far as mere use of language goes, with "trade reaction," and trade reaction has become associated in the public mind with the confusion, disappointment, and business losses which used The Ebb sodes of the kind. That is one often to mark pre-war epi- of Industry reason why business men in general, and Wall Street in particular, will sometimes express dislike at reports such as this present season has presented. The association of ideas is apt to be misleading, but it is not the only reason for hesitancy in accepting such information. There are occasions when prolonged and continuous trade expansion is taken as in itself proof that another and much more rapid advance must inevitably and immediately follow and will continue indefinitely. In so far as this idea existed in the recent high activity of trade, it was emphasized by the evidence which all of our past industrial history provides, that in the long run the course of trade in the United States will always present a picture of expansion. With the country's growth what it has been and still is in population, wealth, and inventiveness, with its progressively intensive exploitation of undeveloped natural resources, no other result was reasonably to be expected. tainties of a "Presidential year" had EVEN after the shock and trade de- country's total trade must have been at pression of pre-war "panic years' the country's consuming capacity, as shown by tonnage of freight distributed on railways, would in two or three years reach larger figures than in the best days before the downturn. Perhaps it was not un The Past natural that knowledge of such a record, combined with the highpitched aspiration of the American business community and its present belief that defects of the pre-war business organism had been corrected, should have encouraged the idea that the forward movement would suffer no future interruption. But this was to reckon on something for which neither common sense nor experience gave any warrant. Even the lately familiar theory of "stabilized industry" does not assume perpetual speeding up of trade activity on the scale of a particularly fortunate year. It does not take for granted immunity from unfavorable accidents of a given season, or from change in mood or capacity of the consuming public. There have always been incidental normal years in which the forward movement was checked; something which happened as recently as 1924, whose traffic-though it came between two other years, each of which surpassed all previous achievement—was greatly diminished from 1923. least considerable. Even the soft-coal miners' strike has been adduced as a con tributory cause, on the ground that suspension for six successive months in the earnings of 200,000 working men must affect the aggregate demand for goods. With full employment at high wages elsewhere, however, the disposition has been to minimize such special influences. It has commonly been answered that we always have dark spots somewhere in the there was insistent complaint of hard industrial organism. In 1926 and 1925 times in the Western and Northwestern grain belt, yet without arresting the forward surge of national trade activity. been drawn that, so long as the great bulk From this the inference has repeatedly of the laboring community was busily at work for unprecedentedly high wages, increased buying of goods by that important part of the consuming population would far more than offset an incidental and temporary decrease in other quarters. T has certainly done so in our recent past, even though it failed to do so in 1924. Yet it is also best to recognize that, in this very matter of consumption of goods by a superprosperous laboring community, we still have in hand some uncertainties which can- The Instalmentnot yet be described as defBuying initely settled. Discussion, Problem for instance, of that characteristic phenomenon in to-day's American trade-purchase of every kind of goods on the deferred-payment basis-has usually (Financial Situation, continued on page 78) N 1924 it was commonly said that production and consumption had been temporarily overdone, also that uncer Behind the Scenes A Jolly, a Mellow, an Inspiring THE FLEA, THE PUP, and THE MILLENNIUM, by Don Marquis THE CONFESSIONS OF A PENITENT AND PUZZLED PARSON, by the Rt. Rev. Charles Fiske, Bishop of Central New York A FIRST CITIZEN OF THE SCIENTIFIC WORLD—Dr. William H. Welch—by Harry Sherwood MY UNITED STATES-Iowa—by F. J. Stimson (J. S. of Dale) JIMMIE ENTERS INTO HIS INHERITANCE, by Ruth M. Stoltz THE BIG STICK OF THE SMALL TOWN, by Will Rose BANANA SPLIT, by Tom Elrod THEY STAND, THOSE HALLS, by Kenneth Griggs Merrill CLASS, by Valma Clark Fiction GHOSTWAYS, by Frances Taylor Patterson WILLIAM LYON PHELPS-ROYAL CORTISSOZ-ALEXANDER DANA NOYES T WO main topics of conversation these days are politics and football. Frank Kent's "Democrats in 1928" and Frank Wallace's "The Hypocrisy of Football Reform" in this number will add considerably to fuel for discussion. Mr. Kent, after drawing a political portrait of Governor Ritchie, of Maryland, last month, rounds up the whole Democratic situation in this article, discussing the Democratic chances for victory, whether another severe defeat would mean oblivion. Although this was written before Mr. McAdoo's definite withdrawal of his candidacy for the nomination, Mr. Kent had already seen his fading out. He points to the interesting fact that the desire for victory has tempered considerably the moral indignation of the practical politicians at the idea of nominating a "wet." The drys haven't a candidate. Frank Kent is the best qualified reporter to discuss the real inside of Democratic politics. He has covered politics from the precinct to the White House. He early in the Coolidge administration cut loose from the tacit conspiracy of newspapers which has resulted in the "Coolidge myth," and went his independent way. He has been saying what he pleases, and saying it with a pen that bites. He is writing the story of the Democratic party which will be published next spring. Francis Wallace is another who refuses to accept the conventional dicta handed down from the powers that be. He wades in and accuses college presidents of muddleheadedness in their efforts to reform the gridiron game. It is a point of view that has been neglected. Francis Wallace is an Ohio boy who followed football and began his newspaper work while a student at Notre Dame. He has worked in steel-mills. He handled sports for the Associated Press and is now a staff writer on the New York Evening Post. He is the author of "College Men in the Big Leagues" in the October number. Will James is following his prize-winning "Smoky" with a new book called "Cow Country," which has just been published. "Down the Wash" is the second of a group of short pieces which Mr. James is doing for the magazine under the general title "All in the Day's Riding." Guy Lowell was revising "Man's First Great Passion" at the time of his sudden death on the island of Madeira last February 5. He achieved fame as an architect. He was a man of culture, of broad general knowledge, and his interests led him into many strange byways, one of them resulting in this article. The Boston Museum of Fine Arts and the much-discussed New York County Court-House are among the public buildings designed by Mr. Lowell. He was also architect for the homes of Paul Cravath, Harry Payne Whitney, and Clarence H. Mackay, and designed gardens for J. Pierpont Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, and the Piping Rock Club. He was intercollegiate champion in the mile run at Harvard, from which he graduated in 1892. His yacht, the Cima, was one of the three American entries in the Kiel regatta of 1911. He was awarded the Italian military medal for valor because of his fearlessness under fire while serving with the Red Cross during the World War. He was a cousin of President Lowell, of Harvard, and of PercivalLowell, the astronomer. America. By his novel he has carved for himself an important place in contemporary literature, a place which those who knew his earlier work confidently predicted. Another new writer presented in this number is John T. McIntyre, whose recent book "Slag," is an interesting example of modern realistic writing. He belongs to the group of authors which Philadelphia is producing these days. Helen Alton Sawyer and her husband, Jerry Farnsworth, are well-known artists now living on Cape Cod. Their illustrations have appeared in SCRIBNER'S. In order to absolve various famous persons of the authorship of "The 'Canary' Murder Case," Mr.S.S.Van Dine drew this portrait of himself. His new story begins in the January number. Conrad Aiken is author of the much-discussed "Blue Voyage," which has caused the breaking up of friendships and is the basis of much controversy in the literary reviews. Mr. Weber, who watches the literary currents in his capacity as book publicity man, tells us that the reviews in the smaller papers have actually caught the real value of the book better than the sophisticated sheets which tag Aiken with the label of James Joyce. "Your Obituary, Well Written !" has something of the quality of "Blue Voyage" and is an excellent example of the work of this young American man of letters. In using this term, I am stealing the thunder of Malcolm Cowley, who in the autumn number of Brentano's Book Chat writes on Aiken. He points to Aiken's poetry, his essays, his short stories, and his novel as distinguishing him from the specialists in literature with which this country abounds. Conrad Aiken was born in Savannah, Ga., some thirty-eight years ago. His parents died while he was quite young and he was sent North to live with relatives. He graduated from Harvard in 1912. He has lived in England as well as many places in Halcyon M. Thomas, whose intimate glimpses of the life of a parson's wife appear in this number, is the wife of the Reverend Howard B. Thomas, of Germantown, Pa. Edward Hope is the able successor of Don Marquis as the keeper of "The Lantern" in the New York Herald Tribune. He is a graduate of Princeton, class of 1920, where he shone as editor of the Tiger and author of one of the best of Princeton Triangle shows. He was for a time connected with the advertising firm of Barton, Durstine & Osborn. He did so well as a pinch-hitter for Don Marquis, during that columnist's absence, that (P. S.) he got the job. He has published stories in several popular magazines. William T. Hornaday, former director of the New York Zoological Park, has perhaps done more for the preservation of wild-animal life in America than any other one man. He is an expert, yet he has the ability to write interestingly. His "The American Natural History" is a standard work, and he is the author of many other books, the latest of which is "A Wild-Animal Round-Up." Harlan C. Hines, having given the intelligence test its due and discussed the use of psychology in education in these pages, now turns to the question of how the auto driver gets that way. "Morons on the Macadam" answers a question often asked with many embellishments on the road. He is professor of education and director of personnel at the University of Cincinnati. Jack Niles writes about his own people in "Hill Billies." He was born and educated in Kentucky. He began writing "music of a sort" at the early age of twelve, hence his particular interest in the songs of the people. He is author of "Singing Soldiers." |