quantity or at a time of year when they were not expected, were usually taken as the forerunner of relaxing trade prosperity. uncertainties since November, 1924. The conservative policies of the Coolidge administration, and Mr. Mellon's masterly conduct of the national finances, had left business men entirely content with the ex A MOMENT'S consideration will show isting order. Belief that the Coolidge ad how far we have drifted from these simple formulas. The consuming power of the American people has of recent years become so strong, so constant, and Old Formulas elicit serious economic theories to the effect that the "standardization" of trade had removed the possibility of future severe reactions. Between 1924 and the last few months, consumption of goods by the American people appeared to be uninterruptedly on the increase. Even with the manufacturer's programme shaped by the consumer's visible requirements, production has in the long run pursued constantly enlarging scale of output and distribution; railway traffic and earnings have risen with the same unbroken regularity; profits in the industrial and transportation industries have become at times spectacular. The attitude of the business community toward the vicissitudes of Europe was unmistakably illustrated a year ago, when American prosperity moved uninterruptedly forward in the face of England's disastrous industrial deadlock, of the severe industrial reaction in Germany, and of the seemingly imminent public insolvency of France. Interest in harvest prospects, which used to occupy Wall Street's mind in midsummer, has been particularly hard to define since 1920. A greatly reduced crop of wheat or cotton has in recent years been repeatedly classified as a helpful incident because of the resultant higher prices; prediction of actual shortage in the new cotton crop has been thus discussed this season. Accumulation of gold in American bank vaults, during and since the war, has been so great that occasional export of gold on a very substantial scale as when we lost nearly $200,000,000 in the early months of 1925came to be discussed with more relief than misgiving, and was in fact accompanied by every indication of reviving financial confidence. Politics cannot be said to have cut any figure whatever in financial ministration was insured of another term in office seemed to guarantee the future. SUCH has been the character of the Market as we have been living, and which has oc- An obvious change from the pre-existing status, however, has occurred in the political situation. President Coolidge's terse announcement of August 2, "I do not choose to run for President in 1928," altered the visible programme to such extent that neither politicians nor financial markets have even yet adjusted themselves to the new situation. That Mr. Coolidge would be a candidate again next year, and that the chances strongly indicated his re-election, had been universally taken for granted in the business community. The factor of politics as an uncertain element in forecasts for the (Financial Situation, continued on page 70) Τ Forecast of the November SCRIBNER'S DEMOCRATS IN 1928, by Frank R. Kent A Keen Political Observer Discusses the Future of the Minority Party THE HYPOCRISY OF FOOTBALL REFORM, by Francis Wallace MAN'S FIRST GREAT PASSION, by Guy Lowell One of the last writings of the famous architect HILL BILLIES, by John J. Niles The author of "Singing Soldiers" portrays his own people MORONS ON THE MACADAM, by Harlan C. Hines WILD ANIMALS WE NEVER SEE ALIVE, by William T. Hornaday Fiction YOUR OBITUARY, WELL WRITTEN! by Conrad Aiken The author of the much-discussed "Blue Voyage" puts some of its atmosphere into a short story DUSTING, by John T. McIntyre The author of "Slag" presents a curious story HOMAS BOYD leads the number with another of his successful Ohio stories. "A Bow to Progress" brings Uncle John and Aunt Mary into contact with America's motor civilization. Mr. Boyd was born in the midst of the country about which he writes, and that event, which happened at Defiance, was less than thirty years ago. He is the author of three novels and a book of short stories. A new edition of his "Through the Wheat" with illustrations by Capt. John W. Thomason, Jr., will appear early in October. In contrast to his "Three Madmen of the Theatre," Otis Skinner presents Thomas Betterton, Gentleman, a moral man condemned to act upon the gay, immoral Restoration stage. Betterton was responsible for introducing scenery upon the English stage. He figures in the diaries of Samuel Pepys, a squat little man who conquered his audience by the sheer grandeur of his demeanor. Mr. Skinner's dra STICK 'EM UP, by Edward Hope Conductor of "The Lantern" in the New York matic ability is by no means confined to his acting. In this article he restores the Restoration stage for us as few have done. If any one thinks that the morals of the American stage are deplorable or that audiences are sadly lacking in manners, let him take comfort in reading "His Majestie's Servant." "Ritchie of Maryland" is an excellent successor to "Hoover-the Man for Difficult Jobs" in the last number. Since President Coolidge's succinct announcement that he did not choose to run again, the political pot has been bubbling furiously. These two articles are the beginning of an unusual series bearing upon the political situation. Readers will remember the article on Governor Smith of New York written by James Kerney, author of "The Political Education of Woodrow Wilson," and published in the September, 1926, number, and Mr. Bent's other article, "Two Souls at War in General Dawes," in the December issue. From a photograph by Orren Jack Turner Frank Kent has had perhaps a better opportunity than any one else to observe the work of Maryland's remarkable third term governor. He has been observing and recording politics in Maryland and Washington since 1898. He is the author of "The Great Game of Politics," and was managing editor of the Baltimore Sun from 1911 to 1921, since when he has been its vice-president. Any one who has followed his writings knows how little political bunk escapes his eagle eye. His portrait of Governor Ritchie is noteworthy for its impartial analysis and its understanding. Christian Gauss is dean of the college of Princeton University. "Of the six hundred thousand young men now in college, it would possibly have been better in nearly a hundred thousand cases, had they not come," he says, and his point of view is not based upon the idea of an aristocracy of intellect. He sees that where in the old days it took some courage and a good deal of sacrifice to send a boy to college, it now takes a great deal of courage and common sense not to send him. His explanation of the so-called student-suicide wave is interesting. Dean Gauss graduated from the University of Michigan in 1898, and taught there and at Lehigh before going to Princeton in 1905. He has been chairman of the modern language department since 1913 and dean since 1925. He is known as one of the most stimulating teachers under whom recent generations of students have had the privilege of sitting -in his case the phrase should be "sitting with' rather than "under." He is known as the man who always has too much to do and yet gets it done. Roy Dickinson has a shack in the Ramapo hills whence come his "Fragments" in this number. Mr. Dickinson is one of those who write slowly, but whose stories when they do appear are worthy of attention. This is his first appearance in SCRIBNER'S. He is a graduate of Princeton, class of 1909, and an editor of Printer's Ink. Gerard Wallop is Viscount Lymington, the son of Oliver Henry Wallop, Wyoming cowboy and rancher, who inherited in 1925 the title of the Earl of Portsmouth. The new Earl, who is waiting for his seat in the House of Lords, served two terms in the Wyoming legislature. He came to Wyoming in 1883 and grew up with the country. Gerard Wallop served as an infantry lieutenant in the World War. He married in 1920 Miss Mary Post of Bayport, L. I. Melvin F. Talbot, whose exceedingly interesting article on the Navy appears in this number, graduated from Harvard in 1916 and entered the Navy as an ensign in the supply corps shortly after the declaration of war. At the time the fleet gathered in New York last spring he was on the U. S. S. Camden, a submarine mother-ship. He has lately been transferred to the Memphis, whose latest claim to fame is that it brought Col. Lindbergh home from France. Lieutenant Talbot writes: In service both at home and on the European station, I have found the chance to study something of armies and navies, their history and the ideas on which they are based. I have always been faced with the question of how the honest soldier could think very much differently than the Germans, and concluded that we are bound to copy their professional keenness, but must never wish for war. That seems to me the golden mean between the honest Quaker pacifist and the soldier of the Von Bernhardi type. The ideas of either if pushed to extremes would lead to trouble. On the other hand, a military man of the type of Admiral Pratt, now President of the Naval War College, is in truth the best of pacifists. Walter Gilkyson has lately sailed abroad with his wife, whom readers of the magazine know as Bernice Kenyon, for an extended stay. His recent novel "The Lost Adventurer" has received excellent notices. Mr. Gilkyson is a Pennsylvanian and formerly practised law in Philadelphia. His story "Spanish Primitives" is illustrated by another Philadelphian, Edward Shenton. Mr. Farmer, meet the Engineer. Harry Burgess Roe in his article in this number shows how the scientific man can trim the congressman as the agricultural Moses. Professor Roe points out that the farmer's chief financial drain is often lack of drainage and also high cost of production. Professor Roe was born in Minnesota of New York Yankee stock and spent his early years on a farm. After graduating from the University of Minnesota he worked for eight years in railroad engineering. He became an instructor in mathematics at Minnesota in 1908 and then began to teach agricultural engineering. He is now associate professor. Kyle S. Crichton, who records the early adventures of Zeb Pike, has lived in New Mexico for the past eight years. He was born in Pennsylvania, however, and this summer he made a break from the great Southwest in order to spend the summer in Westfield, N. J., and see how the East had got along in his absence. Mr. Crichton was manager of the Albuquerque Civic Council and Commissioner of the New Mexico State Bureau of Publicity, which is a long title to have without being paid for it. Mr. Crichton's "Who Says the Road Show Is Dead?" in the July number stirred up a lot of interest. He is an enthusiastic follower of the theatre, and of New Mexico politicians and bandits. "Perhaps the most intelligent critic America ever produced" is the phrase applied to W. C. Brownell by the Saturday Review of Literature in its editorial columns of July 9th. Dr. Brownell in speculating upon the spread and the need of popular culture is led to make such interesting statements as: "If the practice of art among us were to become less general at the same time that its public were to expand in proportion, the result would be most nearly ideal," and "the numerical preponderance of art students over artists is matter for the sociologist of melancholy cast." Mr. Brownell was on the staff of the Nation from 1879 to 1881 and for 37 years was literary adviser of this publishing house. Allen D. Albert devoted his early studies to law and political science, had a wide experience as newspaper reporter and editorial writer, and specialized in sociology. He was president of the International Association of Rotary Clubs, 1915-16. He is the author of many magazine articles. Marie R. Caldwell, author of that laugh-provoker, "Fishing for Mrs. Ripley," is a newcomer to the ranks of SCRIBNER'S authors. She was born near Boston, went to school there and was an instructor at Simmons College at the time of her marriage. She now lives in Newton. (Here Mr. Butler quotes from his story employing a device somewhat similar to one used in "The 'Canary' Murder Case." We omit it in order not to spoil the pleasure of those who have not yet read the Van Dine story.) Oddly enough my first thought, after reading two installments of the "Canary" story was that Bob Davis, late of Munsey's, was the author. That would be funny, because Bob is one of the hottest haters of anything like plagiarism, and has the best memory for old stories known. Later study of the "Canary" story makes me think Train wrote it. He is one of your authors, he has the culture, was an Asst. Dist. Atty., and has not been in print as much lately as usual. My amusement is not hung on any idea of plagiarism, but on the opposite thought that authors are continually hitting on the same idea quite independently. The first act of the fine play "It Pays To Advertise," for example, is exactly the same idea as that in my story "Mr. Perkins Of Portland," published many years before the play appeared. But see what trouble a mean man might make in this case. I have a book about a detective called Philo Gubb. Louis Joseph Vance writes mystery stories. A man about to undertake writing mystery stories thinks of Vance and me, and names his mystery-solver Philo Vance. "Ah!" says Hawkshaw: "Look now for unconscious cerebration! Here is a man who is due for some." Mr. Author, who is a friend of mine, then writes me a letter as was the case and I reply on this yellow paper of mine. "Canary," he thinks-and "Canary" is his murdered woman. This-by the mysterious working of the human brain-pushes up from a forgotten place the (idea for the solution), because he is thinking of me through the "Philo" and the "Canary." Perhaps you know of the case, tried not long ago, where Charles Belmont Davis sued a lady author for taking her plot from a story he had published 25 years before. She won. The plot was in a play by Boucicault, written about 75 years ago! I think it is all very amusing. Yours sincerely, ELLIS PARKER BUTLER. When we acknowledged Mr. Butler's letter and asked permission to edit it, we told him that Arthur Train was not S. S. Van Dine. Mr. Butler in consenting replied: "Well-William Hamilton Osborne hasn't had much published lately either." To recapitulate, the following persons have been accused of the authorship of "The 'Canary' Murder Case": Edmund Lester Pearson Arthur Train Ma Ferguson Pola Negri William Hamilton Osborne Carl Van Doren George Jean Nathan The Editor of Scribner's Any other candidates? "The Greene Murder Case," Mr. Van Dine's new mystery novel, begins in the January SCRIBNER'S MAGAZINE. BLOODTHIRSTY QUAKER A breezy letter comes from a grower of apples of Berwick, Nova Scotia. Dear boy: I congratulate you and maybe after a time I'll pay for the Magazine. To disentangle-just finished "Canary" Murder. A 1. Please do it again-for a Quaker you make me quite bloodthirsty. And Don Marquis, perhaps you don't know in the old days, I saw his genius and told him to go to little old N. Y. Much credit to my cheek, he was bound there anyway. Good day. Apples are fair and so is Europe. |